Political polling and market research may both use surveys, but they serve very different purposes. Political polling is primarily designed to measure public opinion and help predict election outcomes. Market research is designed to generate insights that help organizations understand consumers and make better business decisions.
That distinction matters when questions about whether polls are accurate lead people to question the reliability of market research surveys. Election forecasts depend on assumptions about factors such as turnout, respondent behavior, and how opinions may change before Election Day. Market research generally has a different goal: understanding attitudes, preferences, motivations, and behaviors to reduce uncertainty around a decision.
Here’s a closer look at the difference between political polling and market research—and why the challenges associated with election polling don’t make market research any less valuable.
Political Polling Is About Prediction, Market Research Is About Insight
This is the most important difference between the two. Political polling is meant to forecast voting outcomes, while market research is meant to inform complex business decisions. In other words, polling focuses only on the ultimate voting outcome, while market research usually seeks to understand the “whys” behind consumer behavior, i.e., insights insight into attitudes, preferences, motivations, etc. For this reason, market research surveys are typically much more complex than their poll-based counterparts, containing a wider range of question types and a broader selection of topics.
Polls are merely snapshots of how a sample of a population felt at a given point in time, so, strictly speaking, a poll itself can never be wrong. But pollsters then input the polling data into complex algorithms that try to predict the future election outcomes based on this snapshot in time. These algorithms contain all sorts of assumptions that can be incorrect. To name just a few:
An assumption that x% of people who say they intend to vote for a candidate will actually turn out to vote
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An assumption that turnout patterns among different demographics will be roughly similar to previous years
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An assumption that those who respond to political polls vote in basically similar ways to those who don’t
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An assumption that no major events will change people’s minds between now and election day
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An assumption that changes in voting methods (e.g., a massive pivot to mail-in voting) will not affect the turnout of specific types of voters
Because of all the assumptions involved, predicting a future outcome within a large population is much, much more difficult than taking a descriptive snapshot.
Political Polling Is Done on a Vastly Shorter Time Scale than Market Research
Polls conducted more than a few days ago are generally ignored, because each day’s news brings new events that might alter people’s opinions. Market research needs to be agile and responsive to the end-client’s changing needs. Still, because it focuses on longer-term business issues and consumer habits and sentiments that are slow to change (e.g., loyalty), it’s less affected by day-to-day changes.
This also means that market researchers typically have much more time to do rigorous, complex analysis and interpretation of their results. Market research reporting is usually more in-depth and often includes various statistical analyses and visualization techniques to get at the “whys” behind the data. In contrast, polls need to be reported to the press almost immediately, with little analysis.
The 2020 Polls Weren’t That Wrong
Pollsters incorrectly gauged exactly how much of the vote would go to Trump in many states. Still, they ultimately pointed in the wrong direction for only two—North Carolina and Florida. In fact, the average polling error in close states and blue states for the presidential race was only about 2.5%. (It was larger in safely red states, but this is probably due in part to a well-known effect called “the winner’s bonus”).
So we’re talking about differences of a few percentage points—which matter greatly in a closely contested election, but less so in a market research setting. Often, the differences we find in market research are much wider and more robust than the slim margins between Democrats and Republicans in today’s America. And where we don’t find clear differences—i.e., where survey responses are close or within the margin of error—we don’t recommend basing a decision on those results. It’s as simple as that.
All that said, market research isn’t perfect either—it still leaves plenty of room for error and uncertainty. But the point of market research isn’t to give us definitive answers; it’s to reduce uncertainty and minimize risk by giving us additional data points. Does it seem safer to make a business decision without any customer research, relying solely on the gut instincts of internal stakeholders? Or is it safer to make decisions with information on customer attitudes and preferences, even if that info has some margin of error? The tools of market research are still the best—often the only—way to improve your understanding of your target audiences.
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Frequently Asked Questions About Polling & Market Research
Have more questions about polling and market research? Here are a few we commonly hear.
1. Why can two reputable polls get different results?
Two polls can ask about the same topic and still produce different results because they may survey different samples, use different question wording or survey modes, field the research at different times, or weight the results differently. A few percentage points of difference don’t necessarily mean one poll was conducted poorly.
2. What makes a poll or market research survey representative?
It’s not simply about getting a large number of responses. Researchers need a sample that appropriately reflects the population they want to understand and may use weighting to correct for groups that are over- or underrepresented. How respondents are recruited can be just as important as how many participate.
3. What does margin of error actually tell you?
Margin of error describes the amount of sampling uncertainty around an estimate. It’s useful, but it doesn’t capture every possible source of survey error. Question wording, who responds and who doesn’t, coverage of the target population, and other research design decisions can also influence results.
4. Is a bigger survey sample always better?
A larger sample can improve statistical precision, but bigger isn’t automatically better. A very large sample that poorly represents the target audience can still produce misleading results. Researchers need to balance sample size with sample quality, study design, and the level of precision needed for the decision at hand.
5. Can market research predict what consumers will actually do?
Market research can help organizations understand likely behaviors, preferences, and purchase intentions, but no survey can predict human behavior with absolute certainty. The goal is usually to reduce uncertainty and give decision-makers stronger evidence than they would have if they relied on intuition alone.
