Campos and 90.5 WESA, Pittsburgh’s NPR News Station, are partnering on a series of short opinion surveys of adults in the Pittsburgh region to better understand their opinions on a range of timely topics. This joint research and reporting project will ensure WESA can tap into the opinions of people in Pittsburgh on a regular basis and use the corresponding results to complement its reporting. (For more information, or to sign up to participate, click here.)
In this round of the WESA/Campos Pulse Survey, we explored Pittsburgh area residents’ reactions, political perceptions, and expectations following the November election.
Key Findings
Note: “Republican” and “Democrat” in these findings refer to respondents’ registered parties. “Conservative-leaning” and “liberal-leaning” are composite categories based on multiple questions:
Conservative-leaning = anyone registered as a Republican in Q6, plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a 3rd party in Q6 and who self-identified as leaning conservative in Q7.
Liberal-leaning = anyone registered as a Democrat in Q6, plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a 3rd party in Q6 and who self-identified as leaning liberal in Q7.
Pittsburgh-area residents tended to be at least somewhat surprised by Joe Biden’s loss, but were even more surprised by Bob Casey’s loss.
- 61% of the survey respondents were either “very” or “somewhat” surprised by the presidential election results, while 36% said the results were “mostly” or “exactly” as they expected.
- 70% of the survey respondents were either “very” or “somewhat” surprised by the results of the Senate race between Bob Casey and Dave McCormick, with only 23% saying the results were “mostly” or “exactly” as they expected.
- As a reminder, the survey respondents are approximately representative of the 6-county Pittsburgh metro area, and as such, tend to lean liberal.
- 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans, and 12% are registered as independent.
Democrats were much more likely to be surprised by the election results than Republicans or independents.
- For the presidential election, 77% of Democrats were “very” or “somewhat” surprised by the result, compared to only 42% of Republicans and 43% of independents.
- For the Senate race between Bob Casey and Dave McCormick, 81% of Democrats were “very” or “somewhat” surprised by the result, compared to 62% of Republicans and 49% of independents.
Respondents in aggregate believe that the most likely positive effects of the second Trump presidency on the Pittsburgh region will come in the areas of “cost of living,” “immigration,” “local industry,” “public safety/justice system,” and “taxes.”
- However, there is significant disagreement about “cost of living” and “immigration”—some (primarily liberal-leaning) believe these areas will be negatively affected, while others (primarily conservative-leaning) believe these will be positively affected.
- “Local industry,” “public safety / justice system,” and “taxes” appear to be the areas where there is the most consensus among conservative- and liberal-leaning respondents about potential positive effects.
- While conservative-leaning respondents are more likely to believe these will be positively affected than liberal-leaning respondents, very few liberal-leaning respondents selected these among the top 2 areas they believed would be negatively affected by the Trump administration.
- “Local industry” in particular stands out as the area that liberal-leaning respondents are most likely to believe will be positively affected by the incoming Trump administration. (15% of them believe this.)
- 58% of liberal-leaning respondents (and 60% of Democrats) believe that none of the policy areas in the list will be positively affected by the incoming Trump administration.
Respondents in aggregate believe that the most likely negative effects of the second Trump presidency on the Pittsburgh region will come in the areas of “reproductive issues or women’s health,” “cost of living,” “public assistance programs,” “healthcare / public health,” and “immigration.”
- As noted above, there is significant disagreement about “cost of living” and “immigration”—some (primarily liberal-leaning) believe these areas will be negatively affected, while others (primarily conservative-leaning) believe these will be positively affected.
- “Reproductive issues or women’s health” and “public assistance programs” appear to be the areas where there is the most consensus among conservative- and liberal-leaning respondents about potential negative effects.
- These are the areas that conservative-leaning respondents are most likely to believe will be negatively impacted by the incoming Trump administration (14% and 12%, respectively), and very few conservative-leaning respondents believe these areas will be positively affected.
- 49% of conservative-leaning respondents (and 50% of Republicans) believe that none of the policy areas in the list will be positively affected by the incoming Trump administration.
Unsurprisingly, conservatives’ and liberals’ evaluations of the Republican Party are vastly different.
- Conservative-leaning respondents most commonly describe the Republican Party today with the words “freedom,” “American” or “America,” “great,” “inclusive,” “good,” and “determined,” “constitutional,” and “honest.”
- Liberal-leaning respondents most commonly describe the Republican Party today with the words “cult,” “corrupt,” “conservative,” “greedy,” “ignorant,” “fascist,” “hateful,” “dangerous,” “dishonest,” “delusional,” “crazy,” “bigoted,” or “hypocrite.”
- The only descriptor applied frequently by both conservatives and liberals to the Republican Party is “conservative.”
- That said, a few negative terms—including “distracted,” “delusional,” “cowards,” and “chaotic”—cropped up frequently among conservative-leaning respondents’ most common descriptors, indicating a minority who seem to agree with liberal-leaning respondents.
On the other hand, there’s a surprising amount of convergence between conservatives’ and liberals’ evaluations of the Democratic Party.
- Of course, conservative-leaning respondents are much more likely to describe the Democratic Party negatively than liberal-leaning respondents, using words like “arrogant,” “corrupt,” “incompetent,” “clueless,” “fragmented,” “disconnected,” “compromised,” “extreme,” “crazy,” “disorganized,” “delusional,” etc.
- And as expected, liberal-leaning respondents commonly describe the Democratic Party in more positive terms, such as “caring,” “hopeful,” “fair,” “inclusive,” “empathetic,” and “diverse.”
- However, many of the most common descriptions from liberal-leaning respondents are also negative, and echo some of the conservatives’ criticisms: “disorganized,” “confused,” “clueless,” “ineffective,” “divided,” “delusional,” “disconnected,” etc.
- While both ends of the political spectrum often use the same words to describe the Democratic Party, in many cases they are probably using them for different reasons, with different connotations. (E.g., Republicans are likely applying them to Democrats’ policy commitments and effectiveness when in office, whereas Democrats are more likely applying these words to the party’s effectiveness in running & winning elections.)
- Interestingly, “caring” (and, to a lesser extent, “good”) is a common description of the Democratic Party among conservative-leaning respondents, as well as liberal-leaning ones. It appears the Democratic Party has managed to successfully position itself as “caring” across the political spectrum.
- This is the only unambiguously positive word commonly applied to either party by those with opposing political leanings.
- Also, both parties appear to regard themselves as “inclusive” and “diverse.”
Survey Methodology
Fielding dates: October 15-21, 2024
Survey length: 5-8 minutes
- Sample: 400 adults (age 18+) in the Pittsburgh region
Responses were solicited from the proprietary Campos Research Panel (10,000+ members in the Greater Pittsburgh area). Respondents were offered a chance to win one of five $50 gift cards to incentivize participation. - 85% of the respondents reside in Allegheny County, and 15% reside in the adjacent 5 counties (Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, Westmoreland).
- The sample was managed to be approximately representative of the 6-county region by age, gender, and race/ethnicity.
Screening Criteria:
- Age is 18 or older
- Resides in Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, or Westmoreland counties