WESA-Campos Survey: Pittsburgh Residents Share Presidential Election Intentions

Campos and 90.5 WESA, Pittsburgh’s NPR News Station, are partnering on a series of short opinion surveys of adults in the Pittsburgh region to better understand their opinions on a range of timely topics. This joint research and reporting project will ensure WESA can tap into the opinions of people in Pittsburgh on a regular basis and use the corresponding results to complement its reporting. (For more information, or to sign up to participate, click here.)

In this round of the WESA/Campos Pulse Survey, we explored Pittsburgh area residents’ political alignments, intentions, and attitudes regarding the upcoming Presidential election. Below are a few highlights.

Key Findings

Note: “Republican” and “Democrat” in these findings refer to respondents’ registered parties. “Conservative-leaning” and “liberal-leaning” are composite categories based on multiple questions:

Conservative-leaning = anyone registered as a Republican in Q6, plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a 3rd party and who self-identified as leaning conservative in Q7

Liberal-leaning = anyone registered as a Democrat in Q6, plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a 3rd party and who self-identified as leaning liberal in Q7

At this point, there are few undecided voters in the Pittsburgh area—but far from zero.

45 out of 400 respondents—11% of the sample—can be considered undecided or “swing” voters. These break down into:
- 41 people (10% of the sample) who are planning to vote but undecided whom they will vote for.
- 4 people (1% of the sample) who are unsure whether they will vote at all.

Republicans in the Pittsburgh area are more likely to be considering voting outside of their registered party’s candidate than Democrats are.

87% of registered Democrats plan to vote (or have voted) for their registered party’s candidate, whereas only 79% of registered Republicans say the same.
- 12% of Republicans say they plan to vote but aren’t sure who for, yet (compared to 7% of Democrats).
- 8% of Republicans plan to vote (or have voted) for another party’s candidate (vs. 5% of Democrats).

Independents in the Pittsburgh area appear to be split perfectly evenly between liberal-leaning and conservative-leaning—and most already know who they’re voting for. (Caution: Small sample, n=42)

Among those who reported their party as “Independent / no affiliation,” the self-described political leanings form a perfect “bell curve” shape:
- 7% “very liberal”
- 24% “somewhat liberal”
- 38% “neither conservative nor liberal”
- 24% “somewhat conservative”
- 7% “very conservative”
Among this same group, 76% said they definitely plan to vote and know who their choice is. Another 12% definitely do not plan to vote. Only 12% plan to vote but are undecided (the same as the percentage among Republicans).

Among those who know who they’re going to vote for, one third decided after the primary elections—most commonly, after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The following is the breakdown of when respondents had made their decisions on whom to vote for for President (among those who were decided):
- 66% before the primary elections (more than 6 months ago)
- 9% after the primary elections (3-6 months ago)
- 17% after Joe Biden dropped out of the race (2-3 months ago)
- 2% after the national conventions (1-2 months ago)
- 7% after the Trump/Harris debate (within the last month)
Democrats were more likely than Republicans or independents to have decided after Joe Biden dropped out (23% vs. 8% and 13%, respectively).
Independents were more likely than Dems or Repubs to have made their decisions in the last couple of months (9% after the national conventions, 19% after the Trump/Harris debate).

Those who don’t know whom they’ll vote for are generally getting closer to making a decision. (Caution: Small sample, n=41)

When asked “How would you describe where you are in your decision-making process compared to 3 months ago?”, 27% of undecided voters are “much closer to making a decision,” and 46% are “somewhat closer to making a decision.”
- Only 7% are further away from making a decision.
Directionally, liberal-leaning undecided voters seem closer to making a decision than conservative-leaning undecided voters.

Candidate visits to Western PA appear to have a polarizing effect on voters’ support.

For both candidates (Harris and Trump), a majority of respondents say that the candidate’s visits have had no effect on their support for that candidate (56% for Harris, 58% for Trump).
However, the responses for each candidate are heavily dependent on party or political leanings.
- Conservative-leaning respondents tend to say that Trump’s visits have made them more supportive of him (54%), while Harris’s visits have made them less supportive of her (32%).
- Liberal-leaning respondents tend to say that Harris’s visits have made them more supportive of her (48%), while Trump’s visits have made them less supportive of him (26%).
So, the polarizing effect appears to have been slightly greater on conservative-leaning respondents than on liberal-leaning respondents.

An open-ended question for independent/3rd party and undecided voters produced few clear themes, but the most prevalent was that many of them feel that both Trump and Harris are dishonest or inauthentic.

A final open-ended question was displayed to anyone independent/unaffiliated or registered with a third party, anyone unsure who they would vote for, or anyone unsure whether they would vote. The question was: “What would be most important in making up your mind about whether to vote, or who to vote for, in this presidential election?”
Independent/unaffiliated voters who know which candidate they plan to vote for tend to echo the common themes of whichever side they lean toward, whether liberal or conservative.
- For instance, those who lean conservative mentioned border control / illegal immigration, abortion, freedom of speech, and safety/“law & order.”
- Those who lean liberal mentioned women’s rights, democratic values, and social programs.
- Both groups mentioned following the Constitution, as well as character/morality/ethics (though the latter was mentioned more by liberals).
Among those undecided on whether they would vote or whom they would vote for (n=45), there were a few common themes:
- Truthfulness / honesty / integrity – Implicitly, these respondents seemed to regard both candidates as dishonest or inauthentic.
- The economy – Generally, respondents did not elaborate on this, though several mentioned inflation or high prices, and a few others mentioned helping small or American businesses.
- Immigration policy – Mentioned by several registered Democrats as the factor that would decide their vote, though they generally did not elaborate (i.e., it was unclear whether they supported more strict or more open policies than what they believe the Democratic Party offers).

Survey Methodology

Fielding dates: October 15-21, 2024

Survey length: 5-8 minutes

Sample: 400 adults (age 18+) in the Pittsburgh region

Responses were solicited from the proprietary Campos Research Panel (10,000+ members in the Greater Pittsburgh area). Respondents were offered a chance to win one of five $50 gift cards to incentivize participation.
85% of the respondents reside in Allegheny County, and 15% reside in the adjacent 5 counties (Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, Westmoreland).
The sample was managed to be approximately representative of the 6-county region by age, gender, and race/ethnicity.

Screening Criteria: