Political Market Research: Exploring How Voters Think
With Pennsylvania’s primary elections now behind us, voters (and those who seek to understand them) are turning their attention to the November elections.
Battleground states like Pennsylvania receive a disproportionate amount of attention in the national media during election years, as politicians, pollsters, journalists and others attempt to predict which way the state will swing and why.
Pennsylvania’s primary saw low voter turnout. In Pittsburgh, for example, turnout was the lowest it's been in a presidential election year since 2012. In Philadelphia, less than 18% of registered voters cast a ballot.
“The contests highlighted tepid voter enthusiasm in a campaign marked by both candidates' low approval ratings,” wrote Jarrett Renshaw and Stephanie Kelly for Reuters. Both President Joe Biden and Republican challenger Donald Trump each handily won their primary contests, but both saw more than 100,000 voters from their party either vote for another candidate or write in “uncommitted.”
Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, will be critical to win in the 2024 presidential election. As such, we expect to partner with a number of organizations seeking to better understand voters in the Commonwealth and the issues they care about.
What Is Political Market Research?
Political market research involves collecting and analyzing data related to voter and non-voter opinions, behaviors, motivations, and perceptions.
Sometimes political market research is focused on a particular issue or subset of people. For example, a client might be interested in understanding how the shifting landscape for reproductive rights is changing behaviors among women voters. Or perhaps they want to know how economic issues are impacting blue collar workers, or how concerns about geopolitical issues are driving younger voters.
On the other hand, we also often conduct political market research with a broader base of people representative of adults in a particular footprint so we can understand the larger context for an upcoming election.
Political Surveys
Political surveys are the best tool for getting that broader read on how a population is feeling on economic, social, and political issues.
Quantitative research allows us to gather data from a statistically significant sample of people representative of a larger population. For example, Campos regularly partners with Pittsburgh’s NPR station, 90.5 WESA, to survey residents of Allegheny County (where Pittsburgh is located) and the counties that surround it. These surveys are designed to be representative of this footprint, so they data we collect can truly be interpreted as representing the views of the people who live there.
A large, representative sample allows us to understand the incidence rate for various subgroups in that footprint. For example, our most recent survey with WESA found that 56% of registered Democrats and 47% of Republicans said their party is aligned with their views on the issues they care most about. This is important context to know before, for example, seeking to better understand those Democrats and Republicans who feel their party is not aligned with their views.
Political Focus Groups
Political focus groups, interviews, or other qualitative research methods allow you to dive deeper into the opinions and perceptions of particular subgroups of voters and non-voters.
Often the idea for a qualitative deep dive with a particular group starts with quantitative research or other quantitative data. Researchers identify subgroups of voters and non-voters that they deem important to understand more about given the size of the group and their self-reported opinions and behaviors in quantitative research.
For example, we now have data from Pennsylvania’s primary that shows a notable minority of both Democratic and Republican voters cast ballots but did not vote for their candidate. There’s plenty of data out there on why that might be, but follow up qualitative research will help paint a more nuanced picture not only as to why some Pennsylvania Democrats and Republicans are on the fence, but what their candidate has to do or say to convince them to vote for them.
Pittsburgh Focus Groups & Focus Group Facilities
Pittsburgh, our backyard, is a go-to market for political market research, including focus groups. In Pittsburgh you find a dynamic mix of voters from a variety of backgrounds. Because Pennsylvania is a swing state, politicos, researchers, journalists, and others are eager to understand the opinions and behaviors of these critical voters.
Our focus group facility is actually the only market research facility in Downtown Pittsburgh. Custom built in 2017, it’s a beautiful space for conversations with large or small groups of voters.
That said, we also conduct much of our qualitative research virtually now. We have a platform that mimics the in-person experience, complete with a virtual “backroom” for clients to watch the session without being seen by participants.
How to Use Political Market Research
Political market research is different from political polling. With political market research, we’re not trying to predict who will win a race, but rather understand the more complex dynamics that underlie voter thinking and decision making. So what is political market research good for, if not predicting winners and losers?
Informing the Public
First and foremost, political market research helps us better understand the opinions, priorities, and concerns of people in this country. It essentially provides a platform for voters and non-voters to be heard, and this information can truly drive the political agenda.
For example, if political market research is consistently showing a particular subgroup of people, say young Republican women, are shifting their views on a critical issue, say reproductive rights, it’s important to document that that’s happening. Which young Republican women are shifting their views? Why? What does this mean for how they view their political party? How might it impact how they vote? These are the kinds of topics political market research can dive into and, in turn, partners in the news media can disseminate this information.
Messaging Strategy
Political market research is often also useful to inform messaging strategy. Politicians and others looking to connect with voters often conduct market research so they can gather insights that help them better understand particular groups of people and how to talk to them in a way that will resonate with them.
Before crafting messaging aimed at a particular group of people, it’s critical to know what issues they care most about and why, what really motivates them to vote, how they view various candidates and issues, and what barriers exist to getting that person to vote for a particular candidate.
Message Testing
Once messages are developed, it’s also critical to test messaging. This can take many forms, from testing short messages that might be deployed on social media to video ad spots that may be shown during the election season.
We do this testing both qualitatively and quantitatively, depending on what we’re testing and what we want to learn. Often we’re assessing the clarity, resonance, and believability of the messaging. Sometimes we’re also using advanced analytic techniques to help prioritize the messages or identify the optimal grouping of messages.
Conducting Political Market Research with Campos
Want to learn more about how we approach political market research? Get in touch!
